.jpg "Image treatment")
New Low in Unemployment Rate, Yet Wage Growth Remains Subdued
April’s labor market report was consistent with above-trend growth in the economy, despite some mixed messages in the data. While the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%—the lowest level since 2000—the trend in average hourly earnings pulled back slightly, with March’s figure revised down to 2.6% from 2.7%, and April’s figure remaining at 2.6%. (Note that the peak of 2.8% in annual earnings growth occurred in January 2018.) Total non-farm payrolls grew slightly below consensus(164,000 vs. estimated of 193,000) even as payrolls for the prior two months were revised upward by 30,000. Year-to-date, monthly changes in private sector payrolls have averaged 203,000 in 2018 versus 180,000 in 2017. Similarly, office-using employment changes have averaged 56,500 per month in 2018 (Table 1 and Chart 1 on the following page) versus 47,000 in 2017, suggesting little evidence of any slowing of momentum in hiring.